Six Degrees of Climate Health Warnings
By Elaine Blacklock M.D. 15/08/20
In 2007, Mark Lynas published a book called Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet. In the book, he described, degree by degree, how things would be on Planet Earth as things heat up. Now he’s back with Six Degrees of Climate Emergency . . . Our Final Warning. I’ve been reading it this week, and it’s not reassuring.
The climate models aren’t alarmist enough
Humbly, we humans must acknowledge our failure to fully grasp the complexities of our planet. Though our climate models keep getting better, their forecasts, far from being alarmist, are still proving too conservative. As of 2020, the actual on-the-ground measured climate realities of melting ice and permafrost, heat waves, droughts, fires, etc., have in many ways greatly exceeded predictions. In other words, serious climate crisis consequences are happening faster and sooner than expected.
A polar bear struggles . . .
Sea ice is melting faster than the models predicted.
According to Lynas, most of the two dozen models upon which recent studies of Arctic sea ice have relied “fail to accurately simulate the dramatic rate of sea ice loss that is already being observed” in the Arctic. Ditto the Greenland ice shield, where surface melt has progressed well in advance of predictions. How then can we rely on current models to sufficiently warn us of what’s to come?
Modelling science continues to evolve. According to Lynas, the most recent models suggest that even at 1.5oC of global heating, the extremely hot temperatures we currently associate with heat waves will become “normal” summers. I can assure you that with 2oC of heating, things will only be worse. The planet has already exceeded 1oC of heating. And unfortunately, here in Canada and around the world, our motivation to curtail our emissions has been underwhelming, and far short of our mediocre Paris aspirations.
Recent temperatures in the Middle East:
Neither comfortable nor healthy
This being a climate change and health blog, I must point out the potentially lethal effects of heat. Heat kills people, and not only the elderly. It especially kills those who can’t flee to their air-conditioned homes for refuge. Quite a lot of people are in that situation. And by the way, I’m not talking about the future here. just last week, temperatures ranged from 41-53oC in the Middle East. In July, Death Valley, California reached 53oC (128oF). That’s probably just one degree short of the highest temperature ever measured in the world. In June, the town of Verkhoyansk reached a record temperature of 38oC. (Verkhoyansk is in Siberia.) The most recent “hottest summer on record” brought catastrophic wildfires to Australia. And with heat come fire and smoke, drought and dust storms, all of which can severely impact human health in multiple ways. I could go on and on.
The Time is NOW
Mark Lynas subtitled his book The Last Warning. Or maybe he means that to be the title. Either way, in 2020, it’s almost past time to avoid the scenarios outlined in chapters 3o, 4o, 5o, and 6o. We’d better take heed. Taking action on our personal carbon footprints will give us credibility, but unless things change at the political level, it will be way too little, way too late.
Health care workers: Speak loudly to your politicians everywhere. You have trusted, powerful voices. Call them. Email them. Send them @CAPE_Doctors #HealthyRecovery plan. Get out and protest with the Fridays For Future kids. Join Citizens Climate Lobby or Doctors for Extinction Rebellion. There are so many ways to replace your anxiety with action.